The Avalanche
Losses compound downhill—flip the slope with size changes.
Why It Matters
Drawdowns steepen as psychology frays. Flip the slope via size cuts and rebuild rules.
Playbook
- Only raise size after a multi‑trade sequence of process A‑grades.
- One green day is not a trend.
Metrics to Track
- Process compliance score (0–100)
- Average R per trade and per day
- Max adverse excursion vs. stop distance
- Time-to-recover from peak-to-trough drawdown
Common Traps
- Expanding risk after a win or contracting after a loss without rules
- Overfitting entries to noise on lower timeframes
- Neglecting higher-timeframe regime checks
Checklist (print this)
- Bias and invalidation stated in one sentence.
- Position size derived from distance-to-stop.
- Entry trigger and exit cadence specified.
- Kill-switch conditions defined (session drawdown / error count).
- Post-trade note (2 lines): what was planned, what happened.
Educational content only. Not financial advice.